**Wheat Price Trends and Peripheral Markets; Charts and Commentary. More Sense Per Bushel.*

MarketBullets® Friday, March 27, 2026: Pre-Dawn

Wheat trend still upward - Box-o-Rox on “Suspend Incremental Sales” currently holding two (2) tranches of 8.33% of expected crop each. Another tranche will become active on April 1 unless the Chicago May contract is below the main BoR indicator line, which is currently at $5.68 (47 cents below current trade).

Front month West Texas Indermediate (WTI) Crude oil is trading at 93.79. Brent (North Sea) Crude oil is at about 100.82 last quoted.

Dollar Index up, now +2.30% Month-to-Date, as interest rates are rising.

Stay tuned. - Gary

MarketBullets® Wednesday, March 25, 2026: Pre-Dawn

     Crude oil did not get above $93.36 in the nearby futures trade on Tuesday and in Wednesday early trading hours the May contract was trading between $86.59 and $89.57. Wheat remains coupled to crude oil, as without a recognizable ending to the war in Iran there is a continuation of market anxiety. The strongest hint of the wheat price effect of potential cessation of war was seen at 4:00 AM PDT Tuesday when the price of Chicago May futures dropped more than 20 cents in under 10 minutes due to President Trump’s de facto public announcement of “good” talks with Iran. The odds of an ending to the conflict seem to be low, but the consensus is still being expressed in terms of weeks.

     The Chicago price as we type furiously away in the wee hours of Wednesday is below the Box-o-Rox exit trigger price for any increments that have been held back. The difference is large enough to make the status change to “Execute all previously suspended sales”. The ongoing status will remain “suspend” for any new incremental sales that are already on the calendar as long as the price remains above the longer (60-day) indicator line.

    Meanwhile, the crop condition prospects of large portions of the Hard Red Winter (HRW) region in the U.S. continue to decline on lack of moisture as wheat emerges from dormancy. This underlying factor amounts to price support, and will eventually be the dominant driver of the spring season.

       Wheat export inspections for the week ending March 19 totaled 458,411 metric tonnes (16.843 million bushels), up 33% from the last week but down 5.5% from the same week last year. 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments total 732.2 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25.

     It is unlikely that we will see large position adjustments among the funds in this environment unless there is another Truth Social banger. The market is still operating as the world awaits the next move in the Middle East.

     Stay tuned in. The frequency of the Warm Signal will take some hunting, but it’s always there for us.

-Gary

MarketBullets® Tuesday, March 24, 2026: Pre-Dawn 

• 1. THE TRUMP TRUTH SOCIAL REVERSAL — THE PRICE EVENT THAT DEFINES TODAY'S TRADE:   As the Iran war enters its fourth week, President Donald Trump announced that the United States has engaged in diplomatic talks with Iran and is taking a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure - Politico.Iran denied the talks and said Trump's move was designed to lower energy prices and "buy time" to implement his military plans - Barron's. The 5-day window expires Friday/Saturday — meaning this week's trade is essentially a countdown clock. The denial from Tehran is not bullish reassurance for oil-bound wheat price - Bloomberg.

• 2. “HEADLINE-TO-HEADLINE” TRADING IS THE MARKET'S NEW OPERATING SYSTEM:   Headline-to-headline trading continues. As of March 23, 2026, the market finds itself caught between the reality of a "risk premium" driven by the blockade of a global chokepoint and the sobering math of a U.S. domestic wheat export machine that is losing its competitive momentum. The combined managed-money long position across the three U.S. wheat futures classes is historically thin and a setup for volatility — the combined long position across the 3 wheat futures classes is only 13k contracts, the largest since October 2022. The algo machines are driving, not the fundamentals crowd.  Source: ADM Investor Services, March 23

• 3. THE HRW CROP — QUIETLY DETERIORATING BEHIND THE GEOPOLITICAL FIREWORKS:Winter wheat ratings plummeted by 22% over the last month alone, with the Brugler 500 index for Kansas dropping to a dismal 339 - The Chronical-journal.  The HRW cropcondition scores due Monday are expected to deteriorate across Oklahoma,Texas and Kansas, with the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European models still at odds on meaningful rainfall beyond ten days. The southern plains drought story remains very much alive, and the forecast rains failing to materialize — as was the case throughout late February and early March — means the market is unlikely to price in weather relief until it actually arrives Today's Monday crop progress release will be closely watched. The weather is a slow-motion fundamental that could re-assert itself as the geopolitical noise dies down.  Source:  Grain Central, March 23

• 4. FERTILIZERPRICE SHOCK — THE DELAYED DETONATOR FOR 2026 CROP ECONOMICS:   As of March17, 2026, DAP and MAP have risen above $700/MT [historical range: $250-$1000], urea has moved above $600/MT [historical: $194-$900], and UAN has surpassed $400/MT [historical: $390-$680]. Persian Gulf countries account for roughly 43% of seaborne urea exports, approximately 44% of seaborne sulfur trade, and more than a quarter of global ammonia exports. Unlike the disruptions experienced during the 2022 Russia–Ukraine fertilizer crisis, fertilizer produced in the Gulf cannot easily be rerouted when the Strait is closed. CAPTS This is not a futures-market problem yet — it's a spring planting cost crisisalready in motion. The Trump 5-day pause may cool energy futures, but fertilizer that isn'tin motion yet won't arrive in time for corn planting.  Source:  Stone

The “irregular event” is geopolitical whipsaw: grain markets had built anIran war premium into overnight trade on Monday morning, then a 4:AM Truth Social post from Trump announcing a 5-day halt on power plant strikes collapsed crude oil ~11% and drained that premium in real time. The denial that the talks happened is from a context of very high internal political pressure between Iranian hardliners and moderates. The 5-day clock runs out this coming weekend. The markets are well aware ofPresident Trump’s stick-and-carrot negotiating style and the Iranians are running out of cards to play. The underlying wheat fundamentals — deteriorating HRW crop, fertilizer price shock, strong export pace, MARS downgrade of EU yields — remain intact. This is a market in a timeout, not a trend change (yet). The Box-o-Rox exit trigger price is within a cent or two of Tuesday’s early trade. Our approach is to wait for a decisive close below that indicator line to change the status of the two (2) tranches of our new crop that have been held up during the last few weeks of uptrend. Trading any market based on “social media” is not prudent.

The trend is still upward. Stay tuned. Plan the next action.

-Gabriel

MarketBullets® — More Sense Per Bushel™

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Good hunting!

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