Click HERE to return to Bullets

Base Chart (Non-Annotated) courtesy of Trade Navigator.

Comment as of Monday May 19, 2025: Close

Paris 11% protein-dry milling wheat printed a series of lows starting on may 5th, 2025 in which 7 of the 11 sessions ending on May 19th were within €.25 per metric tonne (less than 1 cent per bushel) of each other. Technically this creates a bottom formation, although on daily charts it is less powerful than longer-term charts. It is a relatively rare combination of price behaviors over several days at major lows. For us, the meaning is a warning of an important low price at which buyers were able to repel selling attacks over several days, setting up a backstop against which traders may buy with tight exit stops; a small formation that could grow in significance.

This contract is increasingly a leader in global wheat pricing, and it’s patterns are a signature of a large portion of global demand markets.

The Marché à Terme International de France "International Futures Exchange of France" trades in Paris. France is the largest wheat producing nation in the European Union, so the Paris Milling Wheat (now known as “EuroNext” contract is significant to the region and to the world, including the Black Sea origins. As Russia and Ukraine together account for a solid third of the entire global wheat export trade, Paris has emerged as a key price discovery point. When this price leader breaks downward, the world cannot ignore the pattern.

Paris wheat lives in the shadow of the Russian/Ukrainian wheat machine that will continue to set the low price boundary of the global markets. Paris wheat can be used as a market canary reflecting Russian domination of their regional wheat sales territory.