Market Bullets® Wednesday, September 17, 2025: Pre-Dawn.
For the balance of the week; September 17th through the 19th, the commentary section of the updates will be absent, as the staff of MarketBullets, LLC will be involved in the preparation and participation in a Celebration of Life for a senior family member. The charts will be updated each day. If there are significant market events that require response, comments will be provided. Regular Commentary will be resumed on Monday, September 22nd. Thanks for your support and patience.
-MarketBullets, LLC family.
Market Bullets® Tuesday, September 16, 2025: Close
Tuesday’s Chicago December wheat futures gained enough to challenge its August 11th highs with a what has become a 4-day series of higher closes and a net gain of 21 cents in that time. It is a shift in short-term price pattern that will draw the attention of the spec funds. It is still 12-15 cents below the Box-o-Rox marketing indicator.
Diesel spiked 1%-2% to the highest since August 1, 2025. Sanction-based disruption to supply channels out of Russia is apparently the main news driver, but there were no specific wire pieces addressing Tuesday’s spike. Crude oil was up about $2/Barrel.
Looks like rain followed by late-summer heat in the 6-10 and 8-14 forecasts for most of the continental U.S.
The Trump-Xi phone call on Friday will draw some attention, but expectations for substantive changes in the trade realignment process are muted.
The U. S. Dollar Index has declined 1.5% month-to-date for September. The index is now 11.24% below its level at the beginning of March, 2025, challenging a 3½-year low dating back to the month Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border.
The market looks as if it is shaping to do a post-harvest move, i.e. Seasonal Low?. What that yields for us is will have an impact on the marketing year’s results.
Stay tuned
Market Bullets® Tuesday, September 16, 2025: Pre-Dawn
As of very early trade on Tuesday morning in Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, the December contract was up 2 cents. It only adds up to a net gain of 11 cents or so since the Life of Contract (LOC) low on 9-11, but if we are seeing the beginning of a positive trading day on Tuesday, it will amount to a string of four (4) trading days in a row with positive wheat price settlements for the first time since last June. It’s a nearly microscopic shift in market behavior and we are straining hard for it to be “Something”, but right now it amounts to a small shift in the wind on a hunting trip, nothing…and yet…
Market prices often move without visible rationale. It is an old axiom that “It is not the news that makes the market, it is the market that make the news.” If you ask any pundit, “Why has the market done thus?”, he or she will give an answer that is plausible, but there is no guarantee that is the actual reason. This is why charts are so valuable, even as the fundamental analysis is the underlying basis for the price. The movement of the price is almost never driven directly, day by day on macro supply and demand data.
There are thousands of decisions made by thousands of traders that do not concern themselves with balance sheets moment by moment. The charts show what the money is doing, whether that is the funds or the bankers, or the farmers and landlords, or even the infamous speculators.
The market is a living breathing, sentient creature. When the weather is dry and hot, the herd will move to the green uplands. When it grows cold and wet, the herd begins to trail down to the warmer lowlands. This is the fundamental pattern. The tracks of the herd are the charts, to be followed by the hunter hour by hour, day by day, in order to be close to his objective. The general direction of the tracks over time is driven by conditions, in keeping with the fundamentals, but in order to capture the crittur, the chart is the key.
This may be a bit poetic, but it is intended to imply that both the fundamentals and the technicals have a secure seat at the market table.
Today’s fundamental circumstances are not price friendly for wheat. The global abundance of wheat is the stuff dreams are made of the end-users, but down the road, the producers will have their turn at the top of the ferris wheel, when low prices have slowed the production down and demand has continued to grow. For us, many of whom can grow anything we want (as long as it is wheat), it is a patience-taxing circumstance that requires market analysis resembling that of a speculator, more opportunistic and nimble, less plodding and methodical. Awareness of where the market is and how it is moving is the essential factor for controlling risk. It need not be stressful.
U.S. wheat export shipments for the week ended on September 11 were 775,073 metric tonnes (28.48 million bushels), an 80% jump over last week’s report and 31% larger than last year same week. Mexico led with 202,728 tonnes, then Indonesia with 162,277 and South Korea at 100,712. Marketing year-to-date exports stand at 7.855 million metric tonnes, about 12% ahead of the previous year. This is the consumption rate that will change the market tone eventually.
6-State Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat harvest is 94% completed as of September 14, a couple of percent ahead of the 5-year average.
Winter wheat planting in the PNW has WA at 50% versus 42% average by now, OR 13% vs 9% and ID 12% sown vs 14% average.
This stuff is trackable. Let’s track it!
PS: Bulk Ocean Freight has been rising and is not its highest since July of 2024. Delivered prices of any-origin wheat rises on this factor.
Gold has reached a new all-time high early Tuesday morning at $3,737 per Troy Ounce.
Market Bullets® Monday, September 15, 2025: Pre-Dawn
The COT report on Friday showed trading funds unmoved, with small adjustments in aggregated speculative short-sold positions: Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat as of Sep 9th were -82,139 contracts vs -71.636 last week, and KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) -28,727 vs -33,710 previous. The largest recent net short position in Chicago SRW was -May 13 at -118,100 (35,961 contracts more net sold than today). Usually such a change suggests at least one rally of size as a result of all that short-covering, and indeed there was a 60-cent jump between May 13 and June 20.
There is more to a rally than the Speculative Funds alone, as the other side of each Spec short contract had a Commercial buyer. Since the Commercials do not speculate, but hedge only, their earlier buying was done to cover cash forward obligations that were initiated without the wheat in inventory. When the Specs cover their shorts, it’s when the Commercials are selling, as a rally causes cash wheat to move out of the country and reduce the need for futures coverage of obligations. So the rally was sponsored by the spec funds buying, with the commercials selling. This is a slow-moving but powerful indicator of market avalanche potential.
The value of watching these large entities for marketers is that when they reach extreme positions there is inevitably an opposite trade that can move the market dramatically. The current structure has the Specs holding historically heavy but not extreme short-sold positions.
Very early Monday, Chicago wheat had spent the session within 2 cents of unchanged. KC HRW was down less than a cent and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) was up ¼-cent. Pre-opening Paris (the best public price lead for Black Sea wheat price movement) was indicating up 1-3 cents.
The World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates on Friday provided some market-moving data, with a projected corn yield average of 186.7 bushels per acre versus the August report at 188.8. “U.S. corn outlook is for greater supplies, larger exports, and a slight reduction in ending stocks.” The December corn contract rose 8 cents to $4.28 per bushel on Friday. Interestingly, there is a projected 1.3 million acre increase in corn harvested area to 90.0 million acres. If realized, harvested area would be the highest since 1933 and planted area of 98.7 million acres the highest since 1936.” This is not a mandate for a price rally.
The Sep WASDE reported that, “The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production, higher crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month.” Beans gained 11 cents on Report Day.
The numbers for U.S. wheat were projected; “2025/26 unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushel to $5.10 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.” Ugh!
The Global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 9.0 million tons to 1,078.6 million on larger production from several major exporting countries. Australia is raised 3.5 million tons to 34.5 million on widespread favorable conditions to date as indicated by the latest ABARES forecast. The EU is increased 1.9 million tons to 140.1 million on harvest results and government data. Russia is raised 1.5 million tons to 85.0 million on increases for both winter and spring wheat. Production is also higher for Canada, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan by smaller magnitudes.
Despite the underlying grim tone of the WASDE on Friday, wheat managed to gain 4½ cents in Chicago, mostly following corn and soybeans. There will be a Small Grains Summary report on September 30th that will tighten up the stats a bit more.
The trend in wheat prices remains weak/negative. There is no based reason to hold uncovered wheat in storage. Follow plan, make incremental sales on schedule. Watch the historical lows in Chicago and the other major exchanges for either further confirmation of support, or if those lines fail, to accelerate cash sales in order to reduce exposure. If appropriate for your risk tolerance and financial capacity, prepare a re-own strategy for sold wheat to be executed only on confirmed trend change to positive. Call your merchant for discussion and details on the best strategy for your business.
The present wheat market is gloomy enough for producers, but pleasant for end-users. For wheat growers, this is where it is best to remember the best time to be watching for opportunities is at market extremes. This does not say, “own wheat here”, but instead, “Get ready to own wheat, just not yet.”
Hang tough, the change will come, just don’t hold blindly onto wheat that is falling in value.
PS – Noticeables: <Diesel> <Gold> <US Dollar Index> <Ruble VS Yuan> <2-Yr T-Note> <S&P>
Good hunting!
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North of Prescott, Washington
This chart updated end-of-day only
Paris Milling Wheat - Weekly
Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Futures
The Waitsburg Place
“Agriculture is our wisest pursuit because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth, good morals and happiness.” - Thomas Jefferson in a letter to George Washington, April 30, 1787.
“Its the 70th year in a row of unusual weather!’ - Winston Mader (1930 - 2016)
“Prayers Work Best When Your Trades Are With The Trend“ - Larry Williams
“When things go wrong, you'll find they usually go on getting worse for some time; but when things once start going right they often go on getting better and better.” - C.S. Lewis, The Horse and His Boy.
“It Don’t Mean a Thing if it Ain’t Got That Swing” - Duke Ellington - 1932
“If I am worth anything later, I am worth something now. For wheat is wheat, even if people think it is a grass in the beginning.” – Vincent van Gogh.
Scroll down Below Text for Charts of Weekly Chicago SRW - Weekly KC HRW - Weekly Mpls HRS
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Click on any of the following links:
<Paris Milling Wheat Daily> <U.S. Dollar Index Monthly> <WTI/Brent/Urals Crude>
Diesel Daily> <Wheat Spreads> <Gold> <Nat Gas> <Interest Rates>
<Box-o-Rox (BoR)> <Commitment of Traders> <Special Info Item>
<Weekly Ruble/Yuan> <Dry Bulk Ocean Freight> <Head and Shoulders Wheat>
<Fibonacci Spiral>
This chart updated end-of-day only
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Base (non-annotated) Charts Courtesy of Genesis Trade Navigator.
Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) Wheat Futures in 30-Minute Candles