There are useful updates of information on <Israel/Iran> and <Ukraine/Russia> at this site: <ISW>

Market Bullets® Tuesday, July 29, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Clamping down on Putin means hitting his oil-buying friends (China, India). The deadline is now early August. The economic wear on Putin has to be getting heavy. He gives no sign that any of this means anything to him. Based on Putin’s past patterns, it is going to be interesting to see how this pressure plays out. There is a strong intuition that he is unlikely to bend his objective of total capture of Ukraine. Somehow I can’t envision Vladimir calling Don and saying, “Hey Don, I think you may be right. I’ll just call all of the families in Russia that have lost people and tell ‘em, “Hey I’m going to quit trying to take Ukraine…sorry about your losses!”  It’s going to be educational! For wheat it’s just more of the same; high global anxiety and cheap Russian wheat.

Winter wheat harvest in the U.S. is 80% in the bin as of July 27th versus 81% on average by now, according to USDA’s Weekly Crop Progress Report. The northern hemisphere makes about 90% of the worlds wheat versus 10% from the south. The harvest has been relatively uneventful and found that there was a crop out there. Test cutting in U.S. spring wheat is active, with the 6-state completed figure at barely 1%. Washington is 11% done and South Dakota shows 10%, but other big spring wheat states are still waiting for the sucker heads and north-facing coves to dry out. The Red River Valley is looking for a big spring wheat yield average.

     Although the last week’s U.S. wheat exports were reported slightly below trade expectations, cumulative totals in export inspections (loadings) for the 2025/26 marketing year that began on June 1 are still slightly above last year’s pace so far, at 121.6 million bushels.

     Tuesday early trade shows Chicago wheat trading weak, down 7 cents at 4:50 AM, KC Hard Red Winter following Chicago. Minneapolis was only down about 1-2 cents and Paris 11% Milling Wheat was indicating down the equivalent of 4 cents. Its harvest behavior.

     Argentine President Javier Milei announced export tax cuts on meat, grains, and oilseeds (although passing over wheat, which will apparenly remain at 9.5% until next March of 2026). Argentina had been absent from their - decades ago – leadership position in grain exports due to previous administration’s socialist policies, but Milei is making changes. Even with this encouraging news, Argentine wheat planting is expected to decline due to low global prices. In the longer run, it’s healthy for the market.

The wheat complex trend is weak. This is a good time to review the marketing plan and get serious about deliberate wheat marketing decisions and not just checkbook-style sales. Just sayin’…

Stay tuned, something will happen.

Market Bullets® Monday, July 28, 2025: Pre-Dawn

All of the four major wheat exchange leading contracts are below their respective Box-o-Rox “Execute Planned Incremental Sales” indicator lines. This is not a speculative signal, but the message is that there is no uptrend line in progress. The price has been stumbling back and forth across this line like a tired lineman running a rope drill at the end of practice, but the coach keeps saying, “You’re not tired, you just think you’re tired!”

Using Chicago as a bellwether, the support zone is about 10-30 cents below this morning’s early trade. The bottom of that zone at $5.05 has held for at least 8 moons.

There is a complacent tone and the coffee-talk is more about Trump’s Deals or the Epstein Files than any market mandating data.

The chart trend is about a flat as it gets, so holding onto price-exposed wheat in storage is a slow bleed. A price rally from this level remains a reasonable expectation but there is downside risk and no time limit on the dull trade. If you must sell here there is no mandate to wait. Buy it back later with paper if you can find reason to.

*The best visual perspective on trend is from the monthly wheat chart. Take a look if you dare!

Copper is holding near it’s all-time highs.

Diesel is trading slowly in a flabby pattern, at the low side of its recent upward channel.

The U.S. Dollar Index is marginally positive, up 1.68% month-to-date, following a long string of negative months.

The Russian Ruble is slightly weakening versus its benchmark currency, as Vladimir Putin appears to be all-in on his invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions are raising the economic pressure on him, but it is a slow process.

Natural Gas (60%-70% of the cost of making anhydrous ammonia fertilizer) is working on making new 3-month lows.

  Wheat remains trackable. Let’s track it!

PS – Noticeables:  <Diesel>    <Gold>     <US Dollar Index>    <Ruble VS Yuan>    <2-Yr T-Note> <S&P>

Good hunting!

   See “Previous Updates” in Top Menu for historical record of commentary.

North of Prescott, Washington

This chart updated end-of-day only

Paris Milling Wheat

This Chart updated end-of-day only

The Waitsburg Place

“Agriculture is our wisest pursuit because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth, good morals and happiness.” - Thomas Jefferson in a letter to George Washington, April 30, 1787.

“Its the 70th year in a row of unusual weather!’ - Winston Mader (1930 - 2016)

“Prayers Work Best When Your Trades Are With The Trend“ - Larry Williams

“When things go wrong, you'll find they usually go on getting worse for some time; but when things once start going right they often go on getting better and better.” - C.S. Lewis, The Horse and His Boy.

“It Don’t Mean a Thing if it Ain’t Got That Swing” - Duke Ellington - 1932

“If I am worth anything later, I am worth something now. For wheat is wheat, even if people think it is a grass in the beginning.” – Vincent van Gogh.

Scroll down Below Text for Charts of Weekly Chicago SRW - Weekly KC HRW - Weekly Mpls HRS

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Click on any of the following links:

<Paris Milling Wheat Daily> <U.S. Dollar Index Monthly> <WTI/Brent/Urals Crude>

Diesel Daily> <Wheat Spreads> <Gold> <Nat Gas> <Interest Rates>

<Commitment of Traders> <Carbon> <Special Info Item>

<Weekly Ruble/Yuan> <Dry Bulk Ocean Freight> <Box-o-Rox (BoR)>

<Fibonacci Spiral>

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Base (non-annotated) Charts Courtesy of Genesis Trade Navigator.

Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) Wheat Futures in 30-Minute Candles