Full USDA report May 12, 2023 USDA WASDE Report Pdf link: WASDE

Highlights of report:

Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE - 636 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board May 12, 2023 WHEAT:

The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and exports, increased domestic use, and smaller stocks compared with 2022/23. U.S. wheat supplies are forecast lower than last year with smaller beginning stocks and only slightly larger production.

All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The all-wheat yield, projected at 44.7 bushels per acre, is 1.8 bushels lower than last year. The first survey-based production forecast for 2023/24 winter wheat is up 2 percent from last year as higher Soft Red Winter production more than offsets a decline in Hard Red Winter and White wheat. Total 2023/24 domestic use is projected at 1,112 million bushels, up 1 percent from last year, primarily on increased feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 725 million bushels, 50 million lower than last year. Ending stocks are projected 11 percent lower than last year and the lowest in 16 years. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is $8.00 per bushel, down $0.85 from last year’s record.

The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower supplies, trade, consumption, and ending stocks compared with 2022/23. Global production is forecast at a record 789.8 million tons, up 1.5 million. Larger crops in several countries, including Argentina, Canada, China, the EU, and India are partly offset by sizeable declines in Australia, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. The largest increase is for Argentina, where production is expected to recover from a significant drought. Near-record production is forecast in Canada on expanded area reported in the Statistics Canada planting intentions survey. EU production is forecast higher, benefiting from above-average precipitation for nearly all EU member countries except Spain and Portugal. Production in Russia is forecast lower on reduced area and yields from last year’s record. In Ukraine, production is forecast down 21 percent from the prior year, mostly due to the war with Russia. After three consecutive record crops, production in Australia is forecast to decrease substantially as yields revert to average. Projected world consumption at 791.7 million tons is down 3.0 million compared with last year on reduced feed and residual use. Larger feed grain supplies in 2023/24 make wheat less competitive. The largest feed and residual reductions are in Ukraine, India, Russia, and China. Global trade is projected at 209.7 million tons, a decline of 5.5 million from 2022/23. Russia is expected to once again be the largest exporter followed by the EU, Canada, Australia, the United States, and Argentina. Sharp decreases in exports for Australia, India, and Ukraine more than offset increases for Argentina, the EU, and Russia. Projected ending stocks for 2023/24 are down 1.9 million tons to 264.3 million. Stocks are forecast to decline in Russia and the EU but increase in China and India. If realized, this would represent the lowest global stocks-to-use ratio since 2014/15 with more than half of global stocks held in China.

full USDA report May 12, 2023 WASDE Report Pdf link: WASDE